samedi 7 novembre 2015

Le HDP en Turquie : les raisons d'un échec électoral

"Une observation géographique détaillée des résultats de dimanche permet de comprendre comment la victoire de l’AKP s’est construite. Dans la plupart des départements anatoliens où il est traditionnellement majoritaire, le parti au pouvoir a nettement progressé en voix par rapport au mois de juin, ce qui lui permet de reprendre le plus souvent des sièges au MHP, parfois au HDP. Dans les départements kurdes, l’AKP a reconquis une partie de son électorat et progresse parfois très sensiblement (notamment à Ağrı, Batman, Bitlis, Diyarbakır, Muş, Iğdır, Siirt et Van) par rapport au scrutin de juin dernier, qui avait vu une forte percée du HDP. Ce dernier, qui reste toutefois majoritaire dans la plupart des départements du sud-est, perd deux départements du nord-est gagnés en juin (Kars et Ardahan). L’AKP a donc su reconquérir son électorat le plus nationaliste et une partie de son électorat kurde, séduits en juin par un vote protestataire en faveur du MHP ou du HDP. Le MHP semble avoir payé très cher son attitude particulièrement intransigeante, lorsque la constitution d’un gouvernement de coalition avait été tentée, après les élections de juin. Quant au HDP, il a probablement pâti de la reprise de la guérilla par le PKK et de la multiplication des déclarations d’autonomie des élus kurdes dans le sud-est. Quoi qu’il en soit, on observe aussi que la dynamique retrouvée de l’AKP a réduit à néant le vote islamiste radical. Le Saadet Partisi n’obtient que 0,6%, alors qu’il était à 2% en juin, allié il est vrai aux islamo-nationalistes du BBP, crédité, cette fois-ci, de 0,5%."

Source :

World | Thu Nov 5, 2015 10:26am EST
Related: World, Turkey
Tired of gunbattles, some Turkish Kurds hope ruling party victory brings peace
DIYARBAKIR, Turkey | By Humeyra Pamuk

Tired of trenches in the streets and daily gun battles, shopkeeper Berzani Akdogan is hoping the return of single-party rule might bring stability to Turkey's southeast, even though a heavier military crackdown looks likely in the short term.

Akdogan, whose toy store in the region's biggest city Diyarbakir has repeatedly been shuttered by violence, turned his back on the pro-Kurdish opposition in Sunday's general election, voting instead for the ruling AK Party, despite a campaign built on pledges to maintain a hardline against Kurdish militants.

His choice, and those of other conservative Kurds like him - a minority in the mostly left-leaning Kurdish southeast - helped the Islamist-rooted AKP to a stunning comeback, winning back a parliamentary majority that it lost just five months earlier.

The party's founder, President Tayyip Erdogan, vowed on Wednesday to "liquidate" Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) guerrillas in a defiant speech that gave no quarter to those hoping for conciliation. The PKK responded on Thursday by calling off a unilateral ceasefire it had declared in the run-up to the election.

The left-leaning pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party controls most of the southeast. But for more conservative Kurds, Erdogan and the AKP represent the best hope of a political solution to an insurgency that has left the restive region as a relative economic backwater compared to much of the country.

"Why did I vote AKP? Because I need peace more than I need water or bread," said Akdogan, 43.

"I've been a shopkeeper here for the past 30 years and this is the first time I've seen this place so bad. For a month, our shops were closed almost the whole time. Even when they were open, there were no customers," he said.

The escalating bloodshed, police curfews and civilian deaths antagonized many Kurds against Erdogan. Although he launched negotiations with the PKK three years ago and gave Kurds more cultural rights, some Kurds saw those moves simply as a bid to curry support among the 20-million Kurdish community, and the crackdown of recent months as revealing his true face.

Erdogan's aides say that while they have run out of patience with the PKK's armed struggle, demanding it lay down weapons before any return to the negotiating table, they are still committed to a political solution to an insurgency that has cost 40,000 lives over the past three decades, most of them Kurdish.

Opponents accuse him of deliberately stoking violence in the southeast in the run-up to Sunday's vote in a bid to win back nationalist support. But the surge in unrest also pushed Islamist Kurds, sympathetic to the AKP's ideals and its economic policies, back towards the ruling party.

At Turkey's first parliamentary election this year in June, the HDP took almost 80 percent of the vote in Diyarbakir and the AKP just 14, a drop in support that helped it lose its majority for the first time since it was founded more than a decade ago.

On Sunday, support for the AKP rose to around 22 percent in the city, helping push it comfortably back over the threshold needed to govern alone. Its gains were driven in part by fear of the economic consequences if calm could not be restored.


Seyhmus Cavus, 48, who owns a women's clothing store, said Sunday's outcome was the right one despite his being an HDP supporter, with the pro-Kurdish party winning enough seats to be represented in parliament but the AKP in overall control.

"Business has been awful this summer. People are scared. Scared to leave the house, scared to come here. They're scared to get caught in the middle of an attack, that some bomb will explode," he said.

"I wanted the HDP in parliament, but I also believe the AKP will give us back the stability we urgently need."

The HDP, which entered parliament as a party for the first time in June, won 59 of 550 seats on Sunday, putting it in a position to try to hold the government accountable for developments in the southeast, even if Erdogan has said it is no longer a credible mediator.

"Parliament needs to bring the peace process onto its agenda. We want an atmosphere in which all guns are silenced," HDP co-leader Selahattin Demirtas said on Thursday.

But one of the biggest challenges is the role of a new generation of guerrillas, the "Patriotic Revolutionary Youth Movement" (YDG-H), a wing of the PKK which has brought the fight from the mountains increasingly to the towns and cities.

A crackdown on YDG-H in September in Cizre, a town near the Syrian border, caused outrage among pro-Kurdish lawmakers who said 21 civilians were killed during a week-long police curfew imposed during a manhunt for the militants, some of whom were teenagers.

The YDG-H claims to fight against state intimidation and oppression but some Diyarbakir residents question its viability.

"After the HDP got strong results in June, the PKK youth wing declared 'self-rule' in various districts ... thinking the public would support them," said Seyhmus Tanrikulu, Diyarbakir head of the Islamist Kurdish Huda-Par party, many of whose supporters are believed to have swung behind the AKP.

"But the people didn't fall for it. Their trenches, their self-rule didn't find support."

Akdogan, the toy shop owner, said two of his fellow store owners were killed by the YDG-H as they tried to impose their grip in parts of Diyarbakir. It was, he said, a wake-up call.

"Who are this YDG-H gang? They come and say 'shut down your shop, we will unleash hell'. How dare they," he said.

"Where's your hospital, your school? You've destroyed them all in fighting... No services, no roads, no customers. Is that what you understand by self-rule and freedom?"

(Writing by Nick Tattersall; Editing by Peter Graff)
Source :

Voir également : Elections en Turquie : une défaite politique pour le HDP, et par extension pour le PKK

Attentat d'Ankara : les indices convergent vers la piste des Kurdes pro-EI d'Adiyaman

Mehmet Şimşek : "Je suis un citoyen turc d'origine kurde, mes parents étaient illettrés, et aujourd'hui je suis le ministre des Finances de la République de Turquie"

Turquie : les manifestations citoyennes contre les crimes terroristes du PKK continuent, y compris dans la province à majorité kurde de Şanlıurfa

La tribu kurde des Gerdi s'élève contre le terrorisme du PKK

Manifestation de Kurdes anti-PKK à Diyarbakir
Kurban Bayramı à Diyarbakir : les Kurdes du parti Hüda-Par n'ont pas oublié le martyre de Yasin Börü (tué par des pro-PKK)

La mascarade de l'histrion Selahattin Demirtaş

Les appels à la violence de Selahattin Demirtaş

Turquie : il est temps pour le HDP de cesser de jouer avec le feu

L'historien "libéral" turc Halil Berktay critique les mensonges et omissions de la BBC sur le PKK

Violences : l'hypocrisie de Selahattin Demirtaş